Friday, December 5, 2008

Playoff Preview

MIRED IN MEDIOCRITY PLAYOFF PREVIEW

This will be a relatively short playoff preview for the Mired in Mediocrity fantasy football league. I think its safe to say that this has been an interesting year for both the NFL and fantasy football. LaDanian Tomlinson, this season’s consensus number 1 pick has been but a shell of his former self. The season ended for some in the first game of the season when Tom Brady went down for the year, affecting both Brady and Moss owners who likely spent first round picks on them. Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler are currently the 2nd thru 5th rated QB’s in the league. Who saw that coming? Running back is even stranger with Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Thomas Jones and Deangelo Williams all ranked among the top of the position. At least the Wide Receivers represent a little bit of a return to normalcy. Though Moss and Owens aren’t 1-2 like most people had them at the start of the season, they remain in the top nine. In fact that only real surprise in the top 9 is Vincent Jackson, a receiver who is 6’6 and oozes potential (and one that I drafted every year until this year--brilliant) but can never seem to put it together. With all of that being said, let’s take a look at the 6 teams that made the playoffs and handicap the race.

The Longshots:

Team Small. Burned by a stunning lack of production from its top 3 picks to start the year, the fact that this team is even in the playoffs is no small feat (no pun intended). There is no doubt that Tomlinson’s production on Thursday night will be helpful, but the fact of the matter is, in the first game of the playoffs, Small goes up against a powerhouse of a team that dominated the league for much of the earlier part of the season and outscored Team Small by 120 total points this season. Assuming that Team Small is lucky enough to get past the Redeam Team, it still has to go against the number 2 seed, and then one of a host of teams from the other bracket; all of whom outscored Small this season. Team Small has a lot of pluck, but not enough to traverse that road successfully. (Totally random odds of winning the championship: 50-1)

The Dundies. This team put up a valiant effort throughout much of the season, and is actually the surprise team of the league, at least of the teams that made it to the playoffs. Droppin Dueces was the surprise in how poorly that team fared, but that’s another story. Back to The Dundies. Had this team been able to defeat PainTrain in the last week of the season and earned a bye, it would have a much better shot at winning. But the fact of the matter is, The Dundies opponent has favorable matchups across the board, while The Dundies must rely on Matt Cassel and Sammy Morris to produce bigger than expected numbers against Seattle, and an angry Cardinals defense must score a couple of touchdowns in order for them to have a chance. A prospect that does not seem likely. Even if the Dundies does manage to pull of the upset, they will find a team that has not lost since September, waiting for them. (Totally random odds of winning the championship: 45-1).

The Streaky Team:

Triple T’s PainTrain. One look at the numbers in the standings reveals that, at first glance, this team appears to have been more lucky than good. After all, they tied for the best record in the league despite having scored almost 70 points less than the team they tied with, and only 15 points more than Team Small. When you couple that with the fact that the second fewest points were scored against them, luck no doubt has played a part in PainTrain getting to where it is today. However, this is also a team that broke the 90 point barrier in 4 of the first 5 games of the season and finished the season with point totals of 94, 109, 113, and 104 points (while clinching the division title in a 63 point thrashing of The Dundies). In between those two streaks though, The PainTrain notched paltry totals of 35, 50 and 58 points. One would think this team would benefit greatly from the bye, but one must wonder how a week off will affect the team’s momentum. If the team stays hot it could win the whole thing effortlessly. But should Triple T’s PainTrain fall into a slump now, against this level of competition, there will be a massacre of epic proportions. (Totally random of odds of winning the championship: 15-1…yes, the bye lowers the odds tremendously).

The Returning Champion:

Evil Empire Champions. A year after riding Tom Brady’s magical arm to a championship, Evil Empire returns to the playoffs and is coming off a rather solid year. Injuries really took a toll on this team in the middle of the season when Westbrook and Bush were lost for significant periods of time and haven’t really been “right” even when they played. The owner did a magnificent job of juggling his roster and playing the hot hand each week and it has paid off in a big way. A team that loses its starting two running backs shouldn’t be able to succeed the way Evil Empire did. Luckily, Lance Moore turned into a top 10 wideout and Kurt Warner found the fountain of youth, allowing Larry Fitzgerald to have another standout year. Moore and Denver RB Payton Hills have been two of the real “finds” off the free agent list and must continue to produce for Evil Empire to return to glory. Evil Empire should have enough to get past The Dundies in the first round however, The Bay Benchwarmers will be the clear favorite in a second round match up. But those pundits predicting that Evil Empire won’t repeat should remember to never underestimate the heart of a champion (Totally random of odds of winning the championship: 10-1).

The Juggernaut:

Redeam Team. This is a team that outscored four of the other playoff teams by at least 80 points. It also had the second most points scored against it, yet it finished with a 9-4 record, meaning it took everyone’s best shot and kept on going. Drew Brees and Steve Slaton have been the engines that have kept this train going, and it’s doubtful a first round matchup against Team Small will do anything to change that. The only true question mark on this team is its heart, or rather, its ability to produce in the clutch. The team is run by the same owner that managed to miss the playoffs last season despite scoring the most points in the league. In the last game of this season, needing only a win to clinch the division it lost by 14 points to Evil Empire, when its owner over thought and made some panic decisions. With Redeam Team facing the number 6 seed as well as a weak number 2 seed, its path to the finals may just be easier than any other team in the playoffs. Despite not being listed as the favorite in this preview, anything less than a championship would be a massive disappointment for Redeam Team. Will it step up to the plate, or wrap two hands around its neck and squeeze? (Totally random odds of winning the championship: 4-1)

The Favorite:

Bay Benchwarmers. The owner of this team took over the team when it was 0-2 and ownerless. Since then, the team has won 10 of its last 11 games, including 9 in a row on its way to the second most points scored and the number one seed in the playoffs. Evil Empire and Bay Benchwarmers split their match ups this season, and Bay Benchwarmers beat The Dundies the only two times these teams faced off. The total difference in points from the two clashes with Evil Empire is just one point, so should those two teams play it will undoubtedly be a sight to see. There are some concerns surrounding this team, with Clinton Portis hobbled by an ankle injury, but overall, QB thru Kicker and bench, this is the most solid team in the league and the odds on favorite to win the championship. (Totally random odds of winning the championship: 3-1).