Monday, September 3, 2007

It Has Begun...

Let me start off by saying that I love fantasy football. I’ve played in all kinds of leagues over the last 8 or 9 years and have had my fair share of success in them. My love for it can border on obsession, which frankly, is sad. That being said, if I get really into writing this post I could probably spend a good ten pages rehashing the draft itself. In order to prevent myself from doing this, I’ll break my analysis down into several parts, and if I still haven’t said everything I want to say then I’ll post later in the week. Please keep in mind that I am an arrogant bastard when it comes to fantasy football, so please don’t take my comments personally.
Alright, let’s get to it…

A round by round analysis of the draft:

Round 1:

Best Pick: Shaun Alexander to DUMMY TEAM 2 with the 9th pick overall. I know Alexander is coming off a bad year in which he was injured for a good deal of time AND he has to deal with an aging offensive line, but this man set the NFL record for most touchdowns in a season 2 years ago and he is still in the prime of his career. Its hard to imagine that he would’ve lasted to the 9th pick.

Worst Pick: I understand the mentality of picking players you like, but the Pittsburgh Defense drafted by RILEY’s RAIDERS in the first round has to be the worst pick of the round. Marvin Harrison to LVL INFINITY + 1 TEAM wasn’t a sound pick either, but it was only a round too early so was somewhat excusable.

Analysis: We have a lot of first time players this year so mistakes like this are bound to happen. Both teams mentioned in the worst pick category still ended up with decent teams, and in truth in a 10 team league like this with three teams autodrafting, an early mistake is not necessarily a crippling one….Reggie Bush is a fan favorite and I would say he went too early, but if he lives up to his potential, the 5th pick might’ve been too low for him…If Alexander would’ve fallen one more pick VOLDEMORT would’ve been a monster of a team to deal with….the first 4 picks went as expected, though I suspect PINK PONIES would’ve drafted Addai instead of Larry Johnson. She was in the unenviable position of drafting 3rd, the spot I least wanted in the entire draft. Too much risk involved in that pick.


Round 2:

Best Pick: Peyton Manning to VOLDEMORT with the first pick in the second round. VOLDEMORT eschewed the usually strategy of RB-RB with your first two picks and it paid off in a big way. Manning represented much better value than any of the next tier of RB’s that went off the board behind Manning and he was able to find a quality number two back much later in the draft. Factor in the run on QB’s that occurred in rounds 2 and 3 and the Manning pick looks that much better.

Worst Pick: Jeff Reed to STEELERS OWN COWBOYS. Kickers in the second round are generally not a good idea.

Analysis: Outside of the Reed pick its hard to argue with any of the players chosen in this round. Half of the teams went RB-RB and it all paid off for them. DUMMY TEAM 2 might have the best RB tandem in terms of consistency, but TRIPLE T’s PAINTRAIN and COWBOYS seem to potentially have the most explosive tandems. BIGTUNA’s RB are potential filled but Henry is playing in a new system this year (though Denver RB’s are always good) and Addai will be carrying the full load in Indy for the first time.


Round 3:

Best Pick: Tom Brady to LVL INFINITY + 1 TEAM. Brady was the last sure thing at QB (health plus stats wise). He’s had big seasons before with a less than inspiring set of Wide Receivers and this year he has Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker to throw to. Be ready for a monster year from the father of Bridget Moynahan’s baby.

Worst Pick: Chad Johnson to TRIPLE T’s PAINTRAIN. Its not a horrible pick by any means, but I just had no idea who to pick here. I wasn’t sold on Holt and his gimpy knee and aging WR partner (Isaac Bruce). It was too early for a QB (or so I thought) or TE, so I talked myself into Senor Ocho Cinco. He seemed like he would be a fun player to own so I pulled the trigger. But he’s never had double digit TD’s with Palmer as his QB and he is inconsistent as hell, so needless to say I’m still not thrilled with this pick.

Analysis: This was the round of receivers, and a return to normalcy. RILEY’s RAIDERS got a RB with great potential who had a pretty big season last season for Dallas. TE Gates went off the board a full two rounds before the next TE, showing how truly valuable he is at his position. The difference between Gates and Gonzalez is quite a large gap. With Manning and Gates VOLDEMORT has the two players which are far and away better than anyone else at their position. It’ll be interesting to see how this strategy plays out. In the big scheme of things, Houshmandzadeh is underrated and Steve Smith might be slightly overrated, but in this draft they went right where they should’ve gone.


Round 4:

Best Pick: Marc Bulger to TRIPLE T’s PAINTRAIN. There are 6 starting QB’s who represent the top two tiers in fantasy (Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, McNabb, and Bulger). Bulger and McNabb both have some lingering health issues, but the fall after these two guys to the next level is a precipitous one.

Worst Pick: Olindo Mare. I’m not a fan of Kickers going this early.

Analysis: All of the players drafted after Reggie Wayne, with the exception of the two QB’s, are similar in value to their counterparts drafted a round later. Value wise, this was the absolute best time to grab a QB….Randy Moss is an intriguing upside pick…LVL INFINITY + 1 TEAM is slowly building a very intriguing team under the radar.


Round 5:

Best Pick (Tie): I love the picks of Cedric Benson going to PINK PONIES and Clinton Portis going to STEELERS OWN COWBOYS. Both represent phenomenal value this late in the draft. If Portis stays healthy he has the potential to be a top 10 back, and Benson plays on a team with a run first, smash mouth mentality. They’ll pound it at the goal line to avoid costly QB mistakes and Bensons should see most of those carries.

Worst Pick: Reggie Brown to LVL INFINITY + 1 TEAM. I’m just not entirely sold on him and the rest of the picks in this round were really well done.

Analysis: More receivers and more value…Walker will likely have a huge year due to the traumatic experiences of the past offseason…you gotta love Driver as the number one target for aging Brett Farve…Boldin is a beast and Lee Evans might be the best deep threat in the game.


Round 6:

Best Pick: Todd Heap to BIG TUNA. Steve McNair loves his Tight Ends (insert your own homo-erotic joke right here). If he stays healthy he’ll catch more TD’s than Tony Gonzalez. Mark it down.

Worst Pick: Adam Vinatieri to VOLDEMORT. Still too early for a kicker, especially when you are doing a live draft. Zero points for clutch kicks.

Analysis: Vince Young comes off the board here. He has a ton of potential, but also a lack of weapons, a weaker arm than most people think, and the dreaded Madden Curse hanging around his neck. An intriguing pick but I wouldn’t touch him (especially since he’ll be facing the Jags twice this year)….The first two defenses went off the board in this round. If there are going to be two units that will win you some games, these are the two….The Edge is a good back up for me in case of injury to one of my top backs as Arizona should have an improved offensive line under new O-line coach Russ Grimm…Kitna is a scary sleeper QB under the Mad Hatter Mike Martz and his crazy offensive schemes. No team under Martz has ever finished out of the top 5 in passing.

Round 7:

Best Pick: Deuce McCallister by VOLDEMORT at the tail end of the round. He needed a number two back and got one that rushed for over a thousand yards and scored 10 TD’s last year. Not bad at all.

Worst Pick: Nate Kaeding. TOO EARLY FOR KICKERS!

Analysis: This round saw a run on Tight Ends as some very good ones came off the board here. Vernon Davis, Jeremy Shockey, and Kellen Winslow you know about, but two guys who are flying under the radar are Chris Cooley and Bo Scaife. Cooley had 6 TD’s last year, and with a young QB coming in this year, that trend should continue. Scaife was a teammate of Vince Young’s in college and their connection should continue to payoff well at the next level. Throw in the fact that Titans OC Norm Chow loves to utilize the TE position and we have a bonafide sleeper pick on our hands here.


Round 8:

Best Pick: Braylon Edwards to The COWBOYS. His upside his huge, but he comes with a lot of red flags not the least of which is an unsettled (at best) QB situation. He has speed, size, decent hands…and fights with coaches, pouts when he doesn’t get the ball and takes helicopters to the stadium on Sundays. All in all, a perfect pick for The COWBOYS.

Worst Pick: Shayne Graham to the PINK PONIES. Not a bad pick, its just that it wasn’t better than anyone else’s and I can’t fault the computer for filling its starting positions (that’s what its required to do). If you are going to reach for a kicker, than you might as well do it with one of the best and the PINK PONIES did that. This is still too early, but at least it’s after the team filled most of its other major holes.

Analysis: Good value across the board for anyone who did not pick a kicker or defense. The most intriguing rookie went to VOLDEMORT in this round. The best wide receiver to come out of the draft since Randy Moss is going to play for a team that does nothing but throw the ball. The potential is scary.


Round 9:

Best Pick: Jason Witten to LVL INFINITY + 1 TEAM. Talk about good value. The run on TE’s basically ended two rounds ago, yet this team was able to pick up a good one here in round 9. The only reservation I have is that Owens will likely steal most of the goal line looks in passing situations.

Worst Pick: Lance Moore. I could be wrong, but I just don’t know who he is.

Analysis: RILEY’S RAIDERS has a knack for picking deep sleepers. Santonio Holmes will benefit from the coaching change in Pittsburgh and a healthy Big Ben. I’m looking for big things out of him. If Darrell Jackson could ever get over his case of the “drops” he’d be a top 20 WR. Even still, he is excellent value in this round and so is Joey Galloway….John Henderson and the Jags D go to VOLDEMORT who will attempt to make blood come out the mouth.


Round 10:

Best Pick (Tie): Carnell Williams to BIGTUNA, Thomas Jones to DUMMY TEAM TWO, Marshawn Lynch to The COWBOYS, Jamal Lewis to PINK PONIES, and Jerious Norwood to DUMMY TEAM 03. Anytime you can grab a starting RB this late, you have done something right.

Worst Pick: J.P. Losman to TRIPLE T’s PAINTRAIN. Sure he has sleeper written all over him, and he has an outstanding wide receiver but this is the same guy who the Bills were ready to ditch before last season started. Is this really someone you want to count on when your starting QB has a messed up knee? Not exactly.

Analysis: Matt Hasselback by VOLDEMORT was a very smart pick. Let’s get this straight right off the bat, the only time Hasselback will play for VOLDEMORT is when Manning is on his bye week. However, by drafting Hasselback here, he prevents all the other teams who have shaky QB situations from a chance at drafting a valuable backup. Losman’s owner for one was looking at drafting Hasselback in this round….Joey Harrington could surprise some people.


Round 11:

Best Pick: Bernard Berrian to VOLDEMORT. The lone deep threat on a team whose QB can only throw the deep ball. You do the math.

Worst Pick: None.

Analysis: Potential-laden wide receivers went in this round. Vincent Jackson is 6’5 and can leap over people. Clayton came up with a number of huge catches for the Ravens last year and is still very young. Cotchery always seemed to be catching deep passes a year ago and Chris Chambers was consistently picked in the top 5 rounds last year….Normally Adrian Peterson would’ve won the best pick award here, but the COWBOYS seem to have this odd fascination with Running Backs. Eventually you need to draft other positions, no matter how good the value is. Still though, Peterson does have lightning in a bottle potential so long as he doesn’t get hurt. Bonus points for taking him just before VOLDEMORT was going to….I’d normally get on someone for drafting a backup K, but those of us who still haven’t drafted a kicker yet (me) were hurt by this move, so bonus points for that.


Round 12:

Best Pick: Chester Taylor to RILEY’s RAIDERS. This is the pick of the draft. I don’t know how he fell this far. The Vikings cannot throw the ball for their lives but have a strong defense. That means running. Lots and lots of running.

Worst Pick: Terry Glenn to The COWBOYS. Old. Washed Up. No longer has his coach. Done.

Analysis: The Anthony Gonzalez pick by PINK PONIES is truly an inspired pick. If not for the tremendous value RILEY’s RAIDERS got with her pick, this pick would easily win the best pick for this round. The number three receiver in the Colts offense ALWAYS thrives. Last year was a fluke because Stokley was hurt, but if you look at his numbers from a few years ago, you can approximate what Gonzalez will bring to the table. Manning likes smart players who run crisp routes when coming out of the slot. Gonzalez represents those qualities to a T. Oh, plus he did some goofy thing with his house while he was in college so that it was like he was living at high altitudes.


Round 13:

Best Pick: Jay Cutler to DUMMY TEAM 03. Good solid backup.

Worst Pick: L.J. Smith to TRIPLE T’s PAINTRAIN. A backup Tight End? Really? In the words of Mark Jackson, “You’re better than that.”

Analysis: Good QB value here.


Round 14:

Best Pick: Joe Horn to RILEY’s RAIDERS. I think he has one last decent year in him, even if it’s Joey Harrington throwing him the ball.

Worst Pick: Stephen Gostkowski to VOLDEMORT. When you reach early for a kicker he better be your kicker for the year. In other words, why the hell did you draft a backup?

Analysis: Rex Grossman offers a ton of upside this late in the draft, but only PINK PONIES had enough guts to even consider taking him especially after last year when he scored negative points in a Monday night game and actually cost some owners a victory (meaning they would’ve been better off taking a giant goose egg for the QB position that week). Still though, the upside is there.


Round 15:
Best Pick: Josh Brown to TRIPLE T’s PAIN TRAIN. Even though the odds of me finding another kicker are high, this is where you draft a kicker.

Worst Pick: Anyone who drafted an additional defense. You’re only excuse is if you plan on playing matchups the whole year, or you drafted two AFC West defenses with the hopes of starting them against Oakland 4 times this year.

Analysis: Nice job by those of you who took flyers on high risk high reward players this round. It basically costs you nothing to do it, but the payoff could be enormous. Last year there were quite a few people who selected Maurice Jones-Drew as a last round pick. I think we can all agree that paid off pretty well.



So that’s it. On Thursday I will have more on the upcoming fantasy season with my steals of the draft, the reaches, who I think the top teams are, and my predictions for the year. Please comment below if you disagree.

Sunday, September 2, 2007

Here We Go Again...

So this is it. I had to abandon the old site as it lacked focus and direction. Its name didn’t exactly match the contents of the blog. Why have a site called “Hating Kobe Bryant” yet only bring his name up once or twice in three months of posting? It seemed like a good idea at the time, but now that I think about it, its like titling a book, “Love is Forever” and then ultimately writing about people massacring each other. Okay, so maybe it’s not really like that, but I like the analogy anyways. Back to the point, when I decided to create a new blog I wanted it to have a name that better represented its material. So is the writing going to be mediocre? Well, I’d like to think it won’t be but that’s for you to decide. In reality the title of the blog reflects the state of sports in general. Mediocrity seems to be widely accepted in sports these days. In fact, I’d go so far as to say it is embraced. Every NFL team thinks it has a chance to be this year’s St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, or Chicago Bears, therefore most front offices don’t see the need to take a gamble. After all, it’s better to do nothing and finish 8-8 (i.e. not finish with a losing record) than go for broke and come up short. In the NBA there are the San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, and everyone else. Rashard Lewis was just given a max contract by the Orlando Magic for averaging 20 points on a team that couldn’t even crack the 40 win mark last year. In today’s NBA 20 point scorers are a dime a dozen. Sure, Lewis will help the Magic win a few more games, maybe they’ll even advance a round or two in the playoffs one day. But the cap space they had been saving for 5 years is now non-existent—spent on a second tier player who they bid against themselves to get. Brilliant. Look, in the NBA you should either be building a core group of young guys to contend in a few years or you should be a team with a legitimate shot to win a championship, or are maybe one piece away (Boston went from one category to the other…interesting summer for them). Anything else and you are wasting time. All these idiotic teams who are content to finish 7th or 8th in the conference every year only to get bounced in the first round of the playoffs and then end up with a draft pick in the low teens need to get their act together. The incompetence in sports in general can be infuriating at times. I long for the days of greatness. When there were rivalries and hatred that caused teams and players to rise to the challenge. Not for money, or the fans, but for pride. But now, in this politically correct world run by guaranteed contracts and driven by advertising dollars, its better to be in the middle of the pack and go unnoticed than to be noticed at all. The end result? The players, the fans, and sports in general…we are all Mired in Mediocrity.

I’ll link to the older site at the bottom of this post, but for now just know that it’s good to have a fresh start. So how will this site be any different than before? Well for starters I’m going to try and adhere to a semi-regular schedule. I’ll also try and throw in more entertaining posts, similar to the “This is Sportscenter” post from the previous blog. Finally, at least in the beginning, this site will be directly tied into the precious few readers of this blog. Should my readership ever expand, well its likely these early posts will still be fairly entertaining. Anyways, here is the potential schedule:

Monday: I plan to have a running segment updating how the fantasy season is going. I’ll be analyzing the upsets, big games, and let downs that will undoubtedly occur during the season. I’ll also highlight any potential match ups in Monday Night Football that may swing a fantasy game either way. I did this type of analysis with some mixed success for last year’s pick ‘em league and will try and implement the lessons learned to this year’s posts.

Thursday: There will be a “this week in sports” segment for all of you non-sports junkies out there. I’ll do my best to compile a series of links to articles and clips about any big games, upsets, milestones, or outlandish moments that occurred in the past week of sports. I know Thursday is kind of an odd day for this, but I’ve got a full load of classes on Wednesday and Thursday so this will be all I have time for.

Saturday: This will be the miscellaneous post day. Random thoughts, a preview of the upcoming fantasy match ups, a discussion of the actual games being played on Sunday and a word or two about the college football season as well.

I hope to have some guest posters from time to time, and hopefully a return of Bestever, but we’ll see how it plays out. Most of the posts will be pretty football intensive but I’ll keep the material as light as possible. I’ll be back on Monday for a recap of the draft.

Thanks for reading.


Hating Kobe Bryant Blog

Friday, August 31, 2007